BLM25115 | Defining long funding leases: miscellaneous definitions: term of a lease: 'reasonably certain': example 1 - extending term is expensive
From HM Revenue & Customs · Business Leasing Manual
H Ltd leases machines that cost £4,000 each. Lease rentals are £1,000 a year. Minimum lease period is 5 years. At the 5-year point, each lessee can either
walk away without further payment, whether by not exercising an option to extend the lease term or exercising an option to terminate it, or
carry on renting the machine for £1000 a year.
In most cases it would not be reasonably certain that the lessees would exercise their option to extend the lease term because they would, in effect, be paying a high price to do so (the same rental as was charged for the asset when new, even though it has, in effect, been paid for).
If, for example, H Ltd knew from experience that on average 10% extend beyond 5 years (but it is not known which 10%) then none of the leases are reasonably certain to extend beyond 5 years.
However, if H Ltd knows that the great majority of lessees exercise an option to extend the lease term then it is reasonably certain that the options will be exercised - see example 2.